48 – Leading Through Change: Embracing BANI Framework

Understanding the Shift from VUCA to BANI

For years, the business world has relied on VUCA—a framework that describes an environment characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. Originally coined by the military, VUCA helped leaders navigate an unpredictable world. However, as the pace of change accelerates and disruption becomes the norm, VUCA no longer fully explains the challenges we face.

In response, a new model has emerged: BANI. Coined by futurist Jamais Cascio in 2018, BANI captures the realities of today’s world, where systems and organizations are increasingly:

• Brittle – Fragile structures that appear strong but break under pressure.
• Anxious – Persistent uncertainty that fuels fear and indecision.
• Nonlinear – Disruptions that unfold unpredictably, making outcomes hard to anticipate.
• Incomprehensible – Complexity that defies understanding, even with vast amounts of data.

This shift in perspective forces leaders to rethink their approach. The strategies that worked in a VUCA world are now inadequate. To thrive in a BANI environment, leaders must cultivate new skills, foster resilience, and embrace adaptability. Let’s explore what each component of BANI means and how to lead effectively in this new reality.

Brittle: The Hidden Fragility in Our Systems

Brittle things often appear strong—until they suddenly shatter. Many business structures, supply chains, and economies operate under this illusion of strength. However, minor disruptions can have disproportionate consequences, revealing their fragility.

Consider these examples:

• A small earthquake in Japan disrupted the production of a single microchip, bringing automobile manufacturing in Detroit to a standstill.
• A CrowdStrike software update caused millions of Windows computers to crash, grounding flights and disrupting businesses worldwide.
• The Ever Given cargo ship blocked the Suez Canal, halting global trade and escalating costs for businesses worldwide.

How Leaders Can Respond

To counter brittleness, leaders must focus on resilience and redundancy rather than pure efficiency. Instead of optimizing for short-term gains, organizations should:

• Develop backup systems to ensure continuity when disruptions occur.
• Diversify supply chains to avoid over-reliance on a single provider.
• Foster adaptability in teams to encourage quick responses to unexpected challenges.

In a BANI world, resilience is a necessity, not a luxury. Organizations must prepare for disruptions before they happen.

Anxious: Leading Through Fear and Uncertainty

Anxiety in today’s world is not just occasional stress—it is constant. Unlike the uncertainty of VUCA, which allowed time for strategic planning, BANI’s anxiety is relentless. It affects individuals, teams, and entire organisations.

People worry about:

• Job security—Will AI replace my role?
• Economic stability—Can the business survive market shifts?
• Political changes—How will global conflicts impact our industry?

The Problem with Anxiety

When people feel overwhelmed, they often freeze. This leads to:

• Reduced innovation and risk-taking.
• Slower decision-making.
• Increased resistance to change.

How Leaders Can Respond

Leaders cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can reduce its impact by:

• Communicating openly—Silence breeds speculation. Clarity eases anxiety.
• Empowering teams—Giving people control over decisions, even small ones, restores confidence.
• Creating psychological safety—Encouraging dialogue and experimentation without fear fosters resilience.

Above all, leaders must provide a steady presence. Empathy and optimism are essential tools in countering the paralysing effects of anxiety.

Nonlinear: The End of Predictability

In a traditional business environment, effort and outcomes followed a logical path—work harder, achieve better results. That assumption no longer holds.

Small events can now trigger massive, unpredictable consequences.

For example:

• The launch of DeepSeek AI in China erased trillions of dollars in market value almost overnight.
• A single tweet from a CEO can alter stock prices more than a company’s official earnings report.

How Leaders Can Respond

Since predictability is no longer an option, leaders must:

• Embrace agility—Rigid plans will fail in a nonlinear world. Flexibility is key.
• Experiment rapidly—Small, iterative changes reveal what works before major investments.
• Look for emerging patterns—Instead of predicting exact outcomes, focus on identifying trends and responding accordingly.

Success now depends on how quickly leaders can adapt to unexpected shifts. The ability to pivot is more valuable than a detailed long-term plan.

Incomprehensible: Making Decisions Without All the Answers

We are drowning in data, yet understanding it all is impossible. With AI advancements happening at an overwhelming pace, even experts struggle to keep up.

Every week brings a new breakthrough, making last month’s knowledge obsolete.

This presents a challenge: if leaders wait for complete clarity before making a decision, they will already be behind.

How Leaders Can Respond

To lead effectively in an incomprehensible world:

• Trust intuition and experience—Analysis paralysis is a real threat. Sometimes, gut instincts matter more than excessive data.
• Simplify where possible—Focus on the essentials rather than getting lost in complexity.
• Accept uncertainty—The goal is not perfect knowledge but the ability to act decisively despite ambiguity.

What Leadership Looks Like in a BANI World

To navigate this environment, leaders must develop five key competencies:

1. Visionary Thinking

In a rapidly changing world, leaders must craft compelling narratives about the future. A clear vision transforms uncertainty into direction and anxiety into hope.

2. Agility and Adaptability

Since the future is nonlinear, leaders must expect change and pivot when needed. Encouraging teams to experiment fosters resilience.

3. Innovation and Reinvention

Rather than waiting for disruption, leaders should challenge assumptions and drive reinvention before it becomes a necessity. Creativity is no longer optional—it is a survival skill.

4. Relationship Building

Strong networks, trust, and collaboration are more important than ever. Seeking diverse perspectives enhances problem-solving and fosters innovation.

5. Resilience and Perseverance

Setbacks are inevitable. Effective leaders view failures as learning opportunities and keep their teams focused on long-term goals.

Final Thoughts: The Unbridled Leader’s Role in a BANI World

The old leadership models no longer work. When systems are brittle, leaders must build resilience. When anxiety pervades, they must offer clarity. When change is nonlinear, adaptability becomes essential. And when reality feels incomprehensible, leaders must act with confidence despite uncertainty.

This is why I advocate for learning from nature, particularly from horses. Horses have thrived for 65 million years by mastering adaptability, sensing danger before it arrives, and leading through trust rather than control.

If you want your team to develop the leadership skills needed for a BANI world, let’s have a conversation.

📩 Reach out for a complimentary discussion on how to future-proof your leadership team.

As a leader, what will you do differently this week to prepare for the challenges ahead?

Show Notes:

Here are the highlights from this episode: